Have you ever heard the old saying, “No news is good news?”.  Well that is basically the overall update for the 2011 Orange County NY Housing Market.  Below you will find 5 graphs that represent 5 key indicators for the housing market.  Each one tells it’s own story, but when it really comes down to it there was not much change from 2010 to 2011.

So does it really mean that this no news 2011 market is really good news?  I think that the answer is yes.  This historic market downturn started in 2005 and slid sharply all the way through 2010.  For such a steep slide one would think that a “leveling out” would be sustained for a longer period of time.  In my opinion that is exactly what is going on right now.  We have seen a level market for about a year, and it’s my opinon that it will stay this way for at least another 6 -12 months before prices actually start to increase ever so slightly.

On the other hand, some other fellow Real Estate professionals tend to think that this “flat” period might actually be our recovery followed by another down turn.  That point of view is rather draconian, but it is held by many respected Real Estate professionals.  I do tend to be more of an optimist, and from my point of view it comes down to 1 thing.  This downturn has gone on long enough, and the market just has to get better in the near future.

From the perspective of The Green Team Home Selling System, the market is already picking up.  We closed out our best year on record in 2011, and saw an unusually high amount of activity in December.   January has followed suit.  We have seen an unseasonably high amount of new listings walking in our door, buyer showings being scheduled, and offers being negotiated.  Our Aim is to make 2012 even more productive then 2011.  Of course we can only achieve this with the referrals from our clients, friends, and family.

Thank you for taking a moment to read this blog.

Written by Geoffrey Green, Broker/Owner of The Green Team Home Selling System

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Comments by Geoffrey Green on 2-11 Orange & Rockland, NY Housing Statistics.

Graphs provided by The Green Team Home Selling System 845-986-7730

 Despite all of the negative news pertaining to the economy and housing market is it possible that there is a silver lining?  The answer is yes.

For the first time in 6 years Orange & Rockland County, NY had a higher amount of homes sold then the previous two years for the months of January and February. (See units sold graph) Regardless of what any economist might say this is a significant statistic for a couple of reasons:  1) This time last year the Federal Government offered it’s housing credit incentive.  This year the incentive is not in effect and the market activity is inching upward.  2) For 6 years there were significant year over year declines for the months of January and February.  It has been a long slide, but it seems that at a minimum the precipitous decline is over.

 On another note all of the other graphs below generally show no significant change.  This is typical because all other indicators follow the number of units sold.  Essentially this may mean that we are at the tipping point of a housing market recovery.

 I hope this message finds everyone well.  Please remember that your referrals are the lifeblood of our business.  If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell Real Estate, please call us with their name and number.

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Comments by Geoffrey Green on 1-11 Orange & Rockland, NY Housing Statistics.
Graphs provided by The Green Team Home Selling System 845-986-7730

As 2011 begins I think the million dollar question is how will the state government affect the overall housing market? Staring down what some think is a probable bankruptcy, the New York State Government will inevitably have an extremely challenging year in 2011.  In my opinion it’s response to the looming budget deficits will set the stage for either a strong or weak housing market over the next decade.   

A major problem for real estate in New York is property tax.  They are extremely high, and getting higher.  Property taxes fund the school districts and all districts are under tremendous pressure throughout New York State.   The bleak outlook is basically this:  Taxes are going up and services for those tax dollars are becoming worse.  Essentially the government is broken; hence the reason why some feel bankruptcy is quite probable as it will be the only way to restructure all of the entitlement programs that currently have a strangle hold on the State’s financial well being.

This fiscal crisis for New York State will have a dramatic affect on the housing market for two reasons: 1) Property taxes have the potential to sky rocket, and 2) significant portions of the population in upstate New York are employed by the state so unemployment has the potential to skyrocket as well.

The upside to this fiscal crisis is that the State of New York has a golden opportunity to restructure the way our tax dollars are collected and spent.  If they can figure out a sustainable way for New York to move into the future it could set the stage for a tremendously successful housing market for generations to come.  This would in turn set the stage for a large recovery in the job market as well. 

The graphs below show a consistent 8-10 month track record of not much change.  The local housing market here in the Hudson Valley has essentially been plodding along at a pretty even pace.  Granted, that pace is the lowest in decades, but none-the-less there does not seem to be much downward movement in any of the graphs shown below.

Drilling down even further I should report that many of our Agents as well as Agents throughout our regional board, are stating that it’s becoming harder and harder to find their clients a home that is well located, well priced and in good condition.   Inventory levels of non-foreclosure and pre-foreclosure homes are dropping.   Again, the key to this market making a comeback regardless of what the State does is reducing the number of distressed properties.   Can one improve without the other?  Time will tell.

I hope this message finds everyone well.  Please don’t forget that we are never too busy for any of your referrals.  

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